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Amy Mantravadi's avatar

Gotta be honest...I did a double take initially and wondered if you were going to be opposing the expansion of arid climates.

But this is all very good food for thought. Thanks for sharing!

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Ric Machuga's avatar

Forgive me Troy (should you be reading this) but your former students, Andrew and Michael, are correct--our contemporary understanding of "moral deserts" is pernicious and must be vigorously resisted. However, Troy, I fully agree with you that the crucial issue is “what we know about luck” and how that would require significant changes in our culture’s system of justice, but retributive and distributive. So let me add one more consideration to your former students’ arguments.

The sufficient condition explaining any human action or physical effect is the sum total of all the necessary conditions. So, suppose the list of necessary conditions for Fred’s success includes

1. His hard work

2. His willingness to forego present pleasure for long term success

3. His courage which allows him to take reasonable risk for future gains

4. His cultivation of a cheerful demeanor

5. His loyalty to friends in need

6. His moral integrity

7. His healthy eating habits

8. His healthy exercise habits

9. His healthy sleep patterns.

10. The fact that Fred was born with a well-functioning brain and body.

The first nine on this list are moral virtues for which Fred is rightly praised. And I’d even be willing to grant that in some sense Fred deserves to be praise. The tenth item on this list is quite different. We’ll call it the “good luck factor”

Now here’s the crucial point. Even though 9 out of the 10 necessary conditions which account for “Fred’s success” are rightly deserving praise and/or reward, it would be fallacious to conclude that 90% of Fred’s success is deserved, and only 10% is the result of luck.

The necessary conditions which constitute any sufficient condition are related as links in a chain, not as stones in a wall. If 90% of the stones in a wall defending a city were the result of the hard work of its citizens, then we could correctly conclude that 90% of the city’s ability to defend itself against invaders was the result of its citizen’s hard work. But now we are talking about contributory causes, not the necessary condition which are sufficient for success. If your life depends on a chain to swing to safety, it doesn’t matter 90% of the links will support twice your weight. If a single link can only support half your weight, you will not be 90% alive, but a 100% dead!

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